Kalshi Watchlist Explainer

For Claude: How to Use This Skill

Skill instructions are preloaded in context when this skill is active. Do not perform filesystem searches or tool-driven exploration to rediscover them; use the guidance below directly.

When to Use

• explain why this kalshi contract is watchlist only
• show near miss kalshi setups
• build a kalshi watchlist

Output Contract

This skill is self-contained. Use these local references:

• references/output-contract.md
• references/desktop-summary-template.md

Workflow Summary

1. fetch_kalshi_markets uses connector.kalshi_oracle.get
2. fetch_gap_signals uses connector.macro_gap.get
3. fetch_coil_signals uses connector.macro_coil.get
4. assess_signal_health uses transform.assess_kalshi_signal_health
5. classify_watchlist_candidates uses transform.classify_kalshi_watchlist_candidates
6. rank_watchlist uses transform.rank_kalshi_watchlist
7. persist_run uses connector.storage.post
8. persist_watchlist uses connector.storage.post
9. render_summary uses transform.render_kalshi_watchlist_report

Responsibilities

• surface near-miss Kalshi contracts
• explain why a contract is interesting but not actionable yet
• distinguish single-signal confirmation from weak conviction
• show freshness and health caveats clearly
• persist ranked watchlist snapshots

Output Rules

Every watchlist item should explain:

• the contract
• what divergence was observed
• what gap saw
• what coil saw
• why it stayed watchlist-only
• the key risk
• the next check

If no contract qualifies for the watchlist, return a health summary and explain why the list is empty.